NOAA Predicts 'Above-Normal' 2025 Hurricane Season

Hurricane Beryl 2024 Cloud Map Gulf Of Mexico 3D Render Color — Source: 3D Render of a Topographic Map of the Gulf of Mexico with the clouds from July 07, 2024. Category 5 Hurricane Beryl over the Gulf of Mexico on its way towards Texas. All source data is in the public domain. Cloud texture: Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) courtesy of NASA, GOES data courtesy of NOAA. (Getty Images)

June 1 is right around the corner, which means hurricane season is nearly here. For Houstonians, the threat of hurricanes isn’t something taken lightly, especially since the NOAA’s National Weather Service forecasts an “above-normal” 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The administration released their forecast Thursday.

Traditionally, hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, but with warmer ocean waters in recent years, that window may become more volatile.

The NOAA predicts this hurricane season has a 60% chance of being above normal, 30% chance of being near normal and a 10% of being below normal. The forecast includes the possibility of 13 to 19 named storms, which are storms with winds exceeding 39 mph. Six to 10 have the potential to become hurricanes, with three to five having the potential of being a category 3 storm or greater. Hurricanes have winds of 74 mph or more, while category 3 through 5 hurricanes have winds in excess of 111 mph. The NOAA has 70% confidence in this forecast.

NOAA Predicts 'Above-Normal' 2025 Hurricane Season — Source: A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted, according to NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. (NOAA / NWS)

The silver lining of this forecast is that it’s less severe than what was predicted for 2024, which was forecasted to have an 85% chance of being above normal, with 17 to 25 named storms and eight to 13 potential hurricanes. The 2024 hurricane season produced 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, right in line with last year’s forecasts. Hurricanes Beryl, Helene, Kirk, Milton and Rafael emerged as major hurricanes in 2024. Beryl impacted the Houston area as a category 1, killing at least 66 people as it progressed through the Gulf of Mexico.

The 2024 season highlighted the importance of people outside of coastal communities to heed warnings and pay attention to changing weather conditions, as hurricanes Helene and Debby caused severe flooding and storm damage far inland.

“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”

This season is predicted to be above normal due to warmer ocean temperatures and a forecast of less wind shear. Warmer ocean waters provide excellent fuel for developing tropical depressions, while a weaker wind shear allows for storms to develop without interruption. There’s also higher activity predicted for the West African Monsoon, where many hurricanes start out.