NOAA Predicts 'Below-Normal' 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

El Niño expected, increasing wind shear and reducing Atlantic hurricane development
8-14 named storms predicted, 3-6 hurricanes, 1-3 major hurricanes
NOAA also announced 2026 Atlantic season's tropical storm names.

Hurricane Irma 20170908 Cloud Map Caribbean Sea 3D Render Color — 3D Render of a Topographic Map of the Caribbean Sea with the clouds from September 08, 2017. Category 5 Major Hurricane Irma approaching Cuba.All source data is in the public domain.Cloud texture: Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) courtesy of NASA, VIIRS data courtesy of NOAA. (Getty Images)

NOAA Predicts ‘Below-Normal’ Atlantic Hurricane Season

NOAA’s National Weather Service released their predictions for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, which could mean good news for coastal cities in the United States.

The NOAA is predicting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, in contrast to prior years’ more active forecasts. The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.

The NOAA predicts a 55% chance at a below-normal hurricane season, with a 35% chance at a near-normal and 10% at an above-normal season.

With the predictions, the agency forecasts eight to 14 named storms, which are categorized as winds consisting of 39 mph or higher. Of those forecasted named storms, between three and six have the potential to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), with one to three possibly becoming major hurricanes (category 3, 4 and 5 storms with winds exceeding 111 mph).

NOAA Predicts 'Below-Normal' Atlantic Hurricane Season — Source: A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (Image credit: NOAA)

“NOAA’s rapid integration of advanced technology, including AI-based weather models, drones, and next-generation satellite data will deliver actionable science to safeguard the lives and livelihoods of the American people,” NOAA Administrator Neil Jacobs, Ph.D said. “These new capabilities, combined with the unmatched expertise of our National Weather Service forecasters, will produce the most accurate forecasts possible to protect communities in harm’s way.”

Why the NOAA Predicts a Below-Normal Season

A key factor in the NOAA’s below-normal prediction is that an El Niño is expected to develop during hurricane season.

An El Niño is a climate pattern marked by warmer-than-normal ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, which can influence weather patterns around the world and increase wind shear over the Atlantic during hurricane season.

While hurricanes thrive on warm ocean water, El Niño can make the atmosphere less favorable for Atlantic development by increasing wind shear, which can disrupt storms before they organize.